Seed demand forecasting & planning for certified ,foundation and breeder seed production

All farmers need annually to plant their crop areas. They usually acquire seed via two main categories of seed system :Informal or traditional system and formal system. Under the formal system, seed is considered as a commodity that is crucial to food and nutrition security ,youth employment ,poverty reduction and promotion of the national economic growth. Seed production in the formal seed system involves formally organized actors in the specialized activities of managing plant genetic resources, developing improved crop varieties, producing early generation seeds, multiplying seed and distributing that seed to farmers within an official national often carries the label of full certification, and activities are, to a large extent, and commercialized.

Indeed, the development of a commercial seed market by a private sector depends heavily on the availability of stock of early generation seed from achieving these goals requires the knowledge of annual seed demand and seed demand forecasting . Such information would allow a good planning of seed production and marketing and therefore, the emergence of a strong and sustainable seed industry.

Demand forecasting of seed

In adequate estimation of demand and the consequences of over production or under production can cause serious financial consequences for a seed company. Lack of seed means a loss of revenue and a source of frustration for sales while too many carry overs and stock write -offs will prove to be expensive. This combination of special features in the seed industry makes the accurate assessment of demand even more critical. Some of these features are :

Longer period of time for the development of new products from breeding programmes.

• Seasonality of production.

• Production subject to variables like agro climatic conditions outside the control of management.

• Seed replacement rate: Seed Replacement Rate is the rate at which the farmers replace the seed instead of using their own seeds.

Factors affecting seed demand forecasting:

• Cropping pattern and intensity.

• Type of seed used

• Climate

• Demand for crop products

• Market scenario

• Disposable farm income

• Rate or level of adoption of new technology

• Government policy

• Habits and tradition

• Product performance.

SEED PRODUCTION

To meet the Nation’s Food Security needs, it is important to make available to farmers a wide range of seeds of superior quality. In adequate quantity ,Public Sector Seed Institution will be encouraged to enhance production of seed towards meeting the objective of food and nutritional security. The three generation system of seed multiplication include breeder, foundation and certified seed.

➢ Nucleus Seed is the seed produced by the breeder to develop the particular variety and is directly used for multiplication as a breeder seed.

➢ Breeder seed is the seed material directly controlled by the originating or the sponsoring breeder or Institution for the initial and recurring production of foundation seed.

➢ Foundation seed is the progeny of breeder seed. Production of foundation seed stage-I and stage -II may thus be permitted ,if supervised and approved by the certification Agency.

➢ Certified Seed is the Progeny of foundation seed or the progeny of certified seed.

Seeds of newly developed varieties must be made available to farmers with minimum time gap. As hybrids have the potential to improve plant vigor and increase yield support for production of hybrid seed will be provided.

Writer: Priyanka Kunwar (Student, IAAS, Paklihawa, Rupandehi)