Cereal Crops Production And Management In Nepal

Abstract

This articles offers a solution to production of cereal crops in Nepal as the cereal crops have played a major roles in addressing food security issues in Nepal. Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change impact. The main purpose of this article is finding of cereal crops production in Nepal and their management.

This articles begins by reviewing the introduction of cereal crops with the effect of climate change in agriculture production followed by barriers associated with that Nepal being the poor country with poor farmers which results the food security to become a major challenge in Nepal. This article shows the methods of cereal crop production which is based on the trend analysis of time series data which showed that the crop productivity can be resulted by composite function of variety, technology, fertilizer and irrigation facilities and better technical knowhow among the farmers.

Introduction

Cereals, or grains, are member of the grass family (Poaceae) cultivated primarily for their starchy dry fruits. Wheat, rice, corn(maize), rye, oats, barley, sorghum, and some of the millets are common cereals. Cereal crops have played major roles in addressing food security issues in Nepal. In recent years there have been fluctuations in crop production and demands situations due to various reasons. Agriculture has decisive role to economic growth. In Nepal, a large population is engaged in agriculture. Many studies shows that climate change is affecting agricultural production system in Nepal directly or indirectly.

Drying of water resource, erosion, and landslide in hills and mountain regions of Nepal while flooding of cultivated lands in low lying areas of hills and terai regions are the direct impact of the climate change in Nepalese agriculture. Production of the major cereal crop, at the present scenario, most threats especially to the small, rural farmers of the poor nation depending upon the natural climatic cycle where there is no scientific irrigation system. Meeting the food security goal has becoming the major challenge in Nepal. Neverthless rural poverty remains rigidly high, even with rapid growth in the rest of the economy.

Methodology And Methods

This article is based on a trend analysis of time series data specially focused on production and productivity for cereal crops grown in Nepal. Primary data was obtained through field survey with focus group discussion (FGD) from two ecological domains namely Mid hills (Syangja and Baglung Districts) and Tarai (Rupandehi, Parsa and Bara Districts). The sites were Tulsi Bhanjyang (Syangja), Kundule (Baglung), Biruwaguthi (Parsa), Fatehpur (Bara) and Mainahiya (Rupendehi). These sites were purposely selected on the basis of accessibility, where agricultural R&D programs were carried out. FGD was conducted by using a check list to collect data related to farm production, productivity and to know the farmers perception regarding the changes in the productivity of rice, maize and wheat over these periods. The analysis was done by using 20 years data from 1995 to 2014 (APP period) on area, production and productivity of major cereals namely rice, wheat and maize. This period was further divided into two periods (1995-2004 and 2005 to 2014) for the clear understanding of the changes in the area, production and productivity of the major cereals.

Percentage Change

The change in percentage was calculated by using the following formula:

Percentage change = (Change value – Original value)/ Original value ˟ 100

Compound Growth Rate (g) Analysis

Past performance of any variable is indicated by growth of particular variables. Growth of any variable indicates its past performance. The study of growth is frequently used in economic studies to see the trend of a particular variable over a time period. It visibly indicates the performance of the variable under concern, thus can be interpreted for policy decisions. Exponential growth function was used to estimate the growth in the area, production and productivity of major cereals, which is given below:
Yt= abt ut ……………………..…… (1)
Where,
Yt : Dependent variable for which growth rate was estimated
a: Intercept
b: Coefficient of regression (1+g)
t: Years which takes values, 1, 2, …………, n
ut : Disturbance term for the year t
For the estimation purpose, the equation was transformed into log linear form and ordinary least square (OLS) technique was used for estimation. The compound growth rate (g) in percentage was then computed from the relationship:
g = {Antilog of (ln b)-1}˟100
Regression coefficient significance was tested by using the student’s’ test.

Annual Rate of Change

Linear time trend equation was estimated by using OLS technique to find the annual rate of change in area, production and productivity of major cereals.

Coefficient of Variation

To find out the variation in any time series data, simple analytical technique like coefficient of variation is useful (Gairhe 2011, Gupta and Sharma 2010, Ramasamy et al 2005). It is estimated as follows: CV = (SD/ Mean) ˟ 100

Where, SD = Standard Deviation

Instability Index

To study the fluctuation or instability in any time series data, a simple analytical technique instability index is very much useful. It is estimated as follows:

• Parameter of a log-linear trend line is estimated for the variable (Yt) to which instability is to be estimated.
• If the parameter that is estimated is statistically significant, then the instability index (IIN) is defined as IIN = CV ˟ (1-r 2 ) 0.5 Where, CV = Coefficient of Variation r 2 = Coefficient of Determination CV = (SD/ Mean) ˟ 100 Where, SD = Standard Deviation
• If the estimated parameter is not significant in the regression equation, then the CV itself is the instability index.

Results

Present study showed that the crop productivity can be resulted by composite function of variety, technology, fertilizer, and irrigation facilities, in general. Since there is no fertilizer plant in the country at present, farmers suffer from irregular supply of imported fertilizers. In this direction, fertilizer plants should be built in the country for assurance of regular supply of fertilizer.

Conclusion

The area, production and productivity of major cereals have an increasing trend over the last two decades in the country. Increased irrigation facilities, use of improved and hybrid seeds and increased use of chemical fertilizer have contributed to productivity improvement in cereal crops. Better technical know how among the farmers has also crucially helped to rise in the productivity. Total crop production could be increased either by increase in the area or in the productivity. Since the scope of crop area increase is limited, the focus should be given to further productivity enhancement by input supply such as fertilizer, irrigation and quality seed, pest control, minimum support price, buffer stock, trade and distribution to promote the cereal cultivation and assuring market.

Writer: Swikriti Ghimire (Student, Bsc. Ag IAAS Paklihawa Campus)